
Special post by 3rd Tenhoui Doppo san.
Table situation
East 3, You are West, Dora 3s, and its 6th turn.
3 bonus riichi sticks on the table.
Current Point situation
West 25000 (2nd)
North 24000(3rd)
East 27500 (1st)
South 20500 (4th)
Rule: Tenhou
What would you discard and WHY?
Let's discuss.
Note: We are not going to provide answers on our WWYD. Because to think by yourself is more important to see the answers.
We will ask special guest again, But you can post your own WWYD on this forum!
I think cutting the xia is the best move. Doing so will let us Hit pinfu easier with the potential for a 3sided wait with 11 tiles for tenpai.
Michale, Nice one!!
I'm seeing three main possibilities for the outcome of this hand.
1) Throw out 78p hoping to catch a pon on West and rush through the hand with that strong 147s wait. You can pon North after West to set up a 36s wait. If another dora (3s) comes to you, you can make use of it by getting rid of 2s for a wait on 3s and north. With three dora you could have a mangan. After thinking it over, this is my choice.
2) Throw out West, aiming for a pinfu dora 1. Good range, but the hand can't get any bigger and you can't make use of the dora if it comes.
3) Throw out North. The problem is that if you're presumably aiming to draw West (or you'd keep North instead) getting a set of West will make it really hard to settle on a pair for this hand. If you get West, 2356s and 78p can all become pairs here with good waits. If you don't get a set of West you have a pretty bad hand.
Pinfu dora1 is usually pretty good, but if we pursue pinfu with this hand we cut off our ability to do anything with the dora if it comes. The situation at the table is tight and we're still hungry for points. In this situation I'd go for 1), the fast approach, particularly because we have 3000 on the table for the taking.
Dave, I like you post several options and you deciding. Impressive!!
I'll choose Xia as well.
To get 3000 on the table is important but rely on Xia pon is too risky if we think about some one also has Xia pair in their hand.
In addition, if this hand became pinfu and there is at least one ura-dora it becomes mangan.
+8000 +3000 will be +11000 and the 3rd and 4th player will be unable to pass me with mangan-tsumo. This makes easier to compete(only have to take care the 2nd).
Adding max 11000 seems valuable than just choosing fastest.
Kaoru san!! Well explanation!! Maximize expected value isn't it? There is no duplicated sequences so, yes Ura dora chance should be high!! Very impressive!!
78p with the goal of staying closed. sha/pei shabo is strong in an even situation, and it forces a stronger final waiting shape while also preserving safety. there are enough points to make a push worth it, but not so much that we need to risk everything for it. sha pon is also reasonable if it comes.
Wow! Nice one Shinkiii!! How many i's?
Anyway, What about Sha & Pei pon and all the way to Honitsu?
We know Mak will.
Consider situation, the "West" and "North" will be the first to leave the hand as 23456 (S) creates 1-4-7 wait and 78 (P) create 6-9 wait. Since there is 3 Riichi stick already on the table, and 1 Dora is visible in hand, the ideal direction would be Riichi+Pinfu+Dora 1 (2600+3000).
But here is how I would consider:
If one player already declared ready (anyone), I will consider cut "West" first.
If no one is in Riichi, and 1 "North" is visible, I will discard "North" then.